Original Research · Q3 2026
The Southeast Workforce-Housing Scorecard.
Six Southeast secondary metros with exceptional affordability and the strongest domestic in-migration in the country — and why rents are still muted anyway. The honest version.
The honest headline. Unlike our low-supply Midwest scorecard, these six metros are the workforce-housing affordability and domestic-migration story — not, right now, a rent-growth story. All six sit well below the national median rent and all six drew strong U.S.-mover demand in 2024. But all six also grow rents below the national pace, because the Sun Belt supply wave is landing here. We lead with that tension rather than bury it. Every figure is sourced; gaps are marked n/a — not verified. Data-only — no target returns, not an offer of any security.
1. Affordability & rents
The affordability case is unusually strong here: every metro is 11–30% cheaper than the ~$1,965 national metro median, which keeps rent-to-income strain low and leaves room before affordability ceilings bind. The catch is on the growth side — blended asking rents are rising below the national +2.2% pace, a direct consequence of heavy new supply (Section 3). We show it plainly.
| Metro | Rent (ZORI, Jun 2026) | YoY growth | vs. national ($1,965) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huntsville, AL | $1,381 | +1.0% | 30% below |
| Augusta, GA | $1,506 | +1.3% | 23% below |
| Chattanooga, TN | $1,519 | +1.3% | 23% below |
| Columbia, SC | $1,555 | +1.3% | 21% below |
| Greenville, SC | $1,570 | +1.7% | 20% below |
| Knoxville, TN | $1,756 | +0.1% | 11% below |
Zillow ZORI (all-home asking), June 2026, parsed directly; YoY vs. June 2025. National +2.2%. Apartment-only cross-check (Yardi/CoStar) diverges in both directions: Greenville apartment rents ran ~+4.2% (stronger than ZORI), while Huntsville professionally-managed asking rents fell ~3–6% on record oversupply — the single most important rent flag here.
2. The demand is real (migration & jobs)
This is where the Southeast set decisively beats the Midwest: every metro posted strong positive domestic in-migration in 2024 — U.S. movers relocating for jobs, not just international inflows. Greenville, Huntsville, and Knoxville are the largest magnets; Greenville also leads on job growth. The demand is here; the question is only whether supply gives it room to show up in rents.
| Metro | Domestic migration (2024) | Unemployment (NSA) | Jobs YoY | Anchor employers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville | +11,438 | 3.9% | +2.0% | BMW, Michelin, GE, Prisma Health |
| Huntsville | +10,380 | 3.3% | +1.3% | Redstone Arsenal (~45,500), NASA Marshall, defense primes |
| Knoxville | +9,661 | 3.4% | +0.7% | Univ. of Tennessee, Oak Ridge / DOE complex |
| Columbia | +6,584 | 4.2% | +0.7% | State of SC, BlueCross BlueShield SC, Fort Jackson, Scout Motors (EV) |
| Chattanooga | +4,678 | 3.6% | +0.6% | BlueCross BlueShield TN, Volkswagen (EV), TVA, Erlanger |
| Augusta | +3,069 | 4.2% | +1.1% | Fort Eisenhower (Army cyber), Savannah River Site, Augusta Univ. |
Migration: Census Vintage 2024 (parsed directly). Jobs & unemployment: BLS LAUS + CES via the BLS public API, June 2026 NSA — per-metro job growth is primary-sourced here (a rigor upgrade over the Midwest report). Note: Spartanburg is a separate MSA and also grew fast (+8,247 domestic, +2.72%).
3. Where the supply is landing
Supply is the discriminator in this set. Huntsville (7.2% of stock) and Augusta (5.4%) are the elevated-supply markets, and both show it in falling occupancy — Huntsville most acutely, with ~17% vacancy and negative rent growth. Chattanooga is the opposite: almost nothing under construction. Importantly, in Greenville and Columbia the pipeline is geographically concentrated (downtown/urban core), leaving the suburban Class B/C workforce stock — Avanta's lane — comparatively insulated.
| Metro | Supply underway | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga | ~829 units | Lowest supply risk — largely digested |
| Columbia | ~1,800* | Moderate — downtown-concentrated; suburban insulated |
| Greenville–Spartanburg | ~2,188* | Moderate — Downtown/Greer; suburban Class B insulated |
| Knoxville | ~4,657* | Elevated — but strong absorption (#1 in-migration) |
| Augusta | 5.4% of stock | Elevated — occupancy falling |
| Huntsville | 7.2% of stock | Highest risk — ~17% vacancy, asking rents falling |
Supply/occupancy: Yardi Matrix, MMG, Colliers, Matthews (via market reports). *Under-construction counts where a deliveries-as-%-of-stock figure was not citable; that ratio is marked n/a for Knoxville, Greenville, Columbia, and Chattanooga rather than estimated.
The Six, In Brief
Metro-by-metro read.
Greenville–Spartanburg, SC
Best all-around fundamentals of the six: strongest job growth (+2.0%), the largest domestic-migration inflow by count (+11,438), an advanced-manufacturing anchor base (BMW, Michelin, GE) plus healthcare, and apartment rents (~+4.2%) actually outrunning the blended index. Supply is moderate and concentrated Downtown/Greer, leaving suburban workforce stock relatively insulated.
Knoxville, TN
The migration and tightness standout: +9,661 net domestic in-migration, low unemployment (3.4%), ~95% stabilized occupancy, anchored by UT and the Oak Ridge/DOE science complex. The offset is a large pipeline (~4,657 units) that has flattened blended rent growth (+0.1%) and pushed price-per-unit down — a basis-reset market with strong underlying demand.
Columbia, SC
Government/healthcare/insurance stability (State of SC, BlueCross BlueShield SC, USC, Fort Jackson) now gaining an EV-manufacturing leg (Scout Motors), with solid +6,584 domestic migration and the tightest, improving occupancy of the six. New supply is real but downtown-concentrated; suburban workforce stock is comparatively protected.
Augusta, GA-SC
An unusually recession-insulated, federally-anchored economy: Fort Eisenhower (Army cyber HQ), the Savannah River Site (~11,000 DOE), and Augusta University/health, with steady +3,069 domestic migration. The watch-item is supply — deliveries at 5.4% of stock and occupancy down 90 bps. Affordable at $1,506 (23% below national).
Chattanooga, TN-GA
The lowest supply risk of the six (~829 units under construction), a diversified base (BlueCross BlueShield TN, Erlanger, Volkswagen EV assembly, TVA), and healthy +4,678 domestic migration with low 3.6% unemployment. Occupancy is soft (~92%) but with almost no new supply behind it, it should firm — a “supply already digested” market.
Huntsville, AL
The highest-skill economy (Redstone Arsenal, NASA Marshall, defense primes) with the fastest population growth (+2.57%) and largest domestic inflow (+10,380) — but the clear supply and rent outlier: deliveries at 7.2% of stock, ~17% vacancy (record), and professionally-managed asking rents falling (~−3% to −6%). Extraordinary long-run demand, but a “great metro, wrong point in the supply cycle” flag.
The one-line synthesis
Greenville–Spartanburg is the best-balanced (jobs + migration + insulated supply). Chattanooga and Columbia are the lowest-supply-risk, tightest-occupancy plays. Knoxville is high-demand but mid-supply-cycle (basis resetting). Augusta is federally insulated but supply-soft. Huntsville has the best long-run economy but the worst current supply/rent cycle — a timing call, not a quality call.
Methodology & limitations
Primary-sourced and parsed directly: rents (Zillow ZORI), population & migration (Census Vintage 2024), and — an upgrade over the Midwest report — both unemployment and per-metro nonfarm job growth (BLS public API, June 2026). Secondary-sourced (cited): apartment occupancy/vacancy and supply counts (Yardi/CoStar/Colliers/MMG/Matthews), anchor-employer figures, and cap-rate/pricing signals.
Gaps, marked rather than guessed: per-metro rent-to-income; deliveries-as-%-of-stock for four metros; most per-metro cap rates; and a single consistent occupancy as-of date (sources span Q4 2025–Q2 2026, and mix “stabilized” vs. “all-inventory” vacancy conventions — the Huntsville 92% occ vs. ~17% vacancy gap is exactly that).
Original research prepared by Avanta for educational purposes; not investment, legal, or tax advice, nor an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
Full sources & links
Rents: Zillow Research ZORI public data (through Jun 2026).
Population & migration: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 CBSA totals (Mar 2025).
Jobs & unemployment: BLS LAUS & CES State/Metro series via the BLS public API (June 2026, NSA).
Occupancy & supply: Yardi Matrix (via Multi-Housing News "Top Emerging Multifamily Markets of 2026"), MMG Real Estate Advisors, Colliers, Matthews.
Anchor employers: Upstate SC Alliance, Chattanooga Area Chamber, Central SC, and metro economic-development sources.
Pricing: Yardi Matrix (Knoxville price/unit); brokerage aggregators (general cap-rate ranges, not verified per metro).
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